Abstract
Although misinformation in political communication has attracted growing scholarly and public attention, the evidence and analytical framework remain largely inadequate. Identifying whether and how politicians respond to fact-checking and distinguishing verifiable from rhetorically ambiguous claims are operations that still lack standardized and validated tools. It is this gap that the PRIN 2022 project “Fact-Checking Politicians” has addressed, combining causal inference, empirical analysis, and machine learning for natural language processing. “Fact-Checking Politicians” is a research project funded by the European Union through NextGenerationEU under the PRIN 2022, which has brought together researchers at the University of Bologna and Tor Vergata University of Rome.
Results achieved
The team has investigated whether and how fact-checking influences politicians’ communication strategies, with a focus on Italian Members of Parliament (MPs). Political persuasion relies on a mixture of verifiable and unverifiable statements, and the proliferation of misinformation in political rhetoric threatens democratic debate and public policy. Despite the rapid growth of independent fact-checking organizations worldwide (over 100 in 50+ countries by 2016), the causal impact of fact-checking on the supply of misinformation — and specifically on politicians’ behavior — remains poorly understood. The project has pursued two main objectives. First, it has empirically investigated whether and how Italian MPs respond to rigorous fact-checking through a novel randomized controlled field experiment conducted in partnership with Pagella Politica, Italy’s leading independent fact-checking organization. The experiment was designed to minimize experimenter demand effects by operating within a “business as usual” environment — only the selection process of statements to be fact-checked was modified. The study was approved by the IRB of Luiss University and registered in the AEA RCT Registry. Results show that fact-checked politicians reduce the number of incorrect verifiable statements, but at the same time reduce the overall number of claims and shift toward rhetorically ambiguous claims. This pattern of strategic evasion — rather than genuine improvement in truthfulness — is a novel finding with direct implications for assessing fact-checking as a democratic accountability mechanism. The project has also built a Verifiability Index of Italian MPs’ statements, drawing on the main national news agencies. This tool enables causal analysis of the determinants of political verifiability — electoral incentives, career concerns, and voter information costs. Scientific outputs include a causal estimate of fact-checking effects on MPs’ communication behavior, and an analysis of verifiability trends in Italian political discourse. One paper has already been published in the CEPR and CESifo working paper series.Dettagli del progetto
Responsabile scientifico: Andrea Mattozzi
Strutture Unibo coinvolte:
Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche
Coordinatore:
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna(Italy)
Contributo totale di progetto: Euro (EUR) 194.600,00
Contributo totale Unibo: Euro (EUR) 140.743,00
Durata del progetto in mesi: 29
Data di inizio
28/09/2023
Data di fine:
28/02/2026
