Abstract
The MALTHUS project aims at identifying the principal indicators of rise and fall of hyper-productive systems of the 3rd and 2nd millennium BCE in the Po plain, integrating multiple sources and scales of evidence, from settlement patterns to bioarchaeological data. In the period that comprises the Late Copper Age and the Bronze Age, the plain areas of the central Po valley are characterized by an unprecedented demographic growth, triggered by the introduction of efficient agricultural technologies and by the consequent increase of food production, which gave origin to the well-known Terramare culture. The core-area of the Terramare rapidly arose as prominent hubs of a new ‘globalized’ network that connected continental Europe and the advanced socio-political systems of the Eastern Mediterranean. After a period of great prosperity, however, these settlement systems experienced a rapid decline, which has traditionally been explained with a series of co-occurrent factors (climatic, social, geopolitical), culminating in the crises of the 12th century BC. Other causes related to economy, mobility, nutrition, epidemics have been hypothesized, but never systematically investigated. In the framework of the MALTHUS project, we will investigate the demographic fluctuations in the Po plain and neighbouring regions, by tracking specific indicators of “growth” and “crisis”, namely population dynamics, demographic parameters (life expectancy, mortality and fertility rates) nutrition, mobility and diseases. Following the Malthusian theory, our hypothesis is that variations of mortality rates, nutrition patterns, migration rates, and disease frequency are more easily identifiable in economic systems that are more subjected to significant demographic oscillations. MALTHUS’ approach hinges on the integration of these different but strictly interconnected sets of data in order to firmly test which factors effectively contributed to the rise and fall of the Terramare. Thanks to the advances of what has been defined as the “Third Science Revolution in Archaeology”, scholars now have the opportunity of employing new methods for the analysis of archaeological and skeletal materials, which enable a more nuanced understanding of the historical cycles of Italian pre-protohistory. In the framework of the MALTHUS project, the research team will apply quantitative models for the analysis of the settlement patterns and carrying capacity, carbon and nitrogen isotopes for the evaluation of nutrition and subsistence strategies, strontium and oxygen isotopes for understanding mobility dynamics, and aDNA for identifying pathogens. The impact of epidemics and the vulnerability of the population to infectious disease, in particular, will be explored in detail, and is expected to generate new reflections in the public debate about growth, crisis, sustainability, and disease diffusion in the present-day world. Project achievements: 1. A new perspective on the Bell Beaker phenomenon in Europe (2500-2200 BCE) First, we explored the onset of the Bell Beaker phenomenon in Italy in connection with other regions of Europe (2500–2200 BCE). We re-analysed the genetic makeup of Bell Beaker–associated individuals across Europe by isolating individuals clearly associated with the Bell Beaker cultural assemblage and excluding uncertain associations that occur, for example, in long-used collective burials, which are particularly frequent in Iberia, Sardinia, and Sicily. We identified 226 Bell Beaker–associated individuals from all regions of Europe, 128 of whom have been radiocarbon dated. We found that the vast majority of these individuals carry steppe-related ancestry, which appears in many regions of Europe—from Britain and Ireland to Italy and Iberia—precisely at the onset of the Bell Beaker phase. The spread of this new “culture” (also related to the dispersion of the Proto-Indo-European language) was likely triggered by movements of groups from Central Europe, where steppe ancestry is present from at least 2900 BCE, in association with the Corded Ware complex. Nonetheless, we also observed a small number of individuals in Italy and Iberia, who lack steppe ancestry and instead show complete genetic continuity with previous Copper Age populations. This suggests that in some cases—likely more frequently in southern Europe—the new cultural package was adopted by local populations rather than introduced through migration alone. We also observed that the spread of steppe ancestry is closely associated with the diffusion of the Y-chromosome haplogroup R1b. Approximately 95% of Bell Beaker–associated males carry the R1b-P312 lineage, although different sub-lineages display regional variation. In Italy, the few analysed males belong to the branch R1b-L2/S139, which is also found in individuals from the Czech Republic and Germany. Identity-by-Descent (IBD) analysis allowed us to identify biologically related individuals up to the 12th degree of relatedness among the analysed samples. During the 4th millennium BCE, individuals tended to have relatives buried very close to their place of burial. In contrast, biological relatedness across much longer distances becomes evident in the 3rd millennium BCE, thus indicating a substantial increase of trans-regional mobility. We also identified biologically related individuals between sites in the Parma province and regions of Central-Eastern Europe (Bohemia, Bavaria, and Hungary). Through several ancient DNA analyses, therefore, we identified a preferential corridor of interaction between the Po Plain and Central-Eastern Europe, revealing a more nuanced picture of the Bell Beaker phenomenon in northern Italy that integrates processes of migration with the adoption and adaptation of external influences. 2. Mobility and social organization in the Early Bronze Age (2200-1700 BCE) Osteological, genetic and isotopic data suggests that during the Early Bronze Age (2200-1700 BCE), the process of admixture between local populations and newcomers was still ongoing. Isotopic analyses indicate that Early Bronze Age societies settled in the plains were significantly permeable to immigration, even at the level of the upper social segments. However, these upper segments did not appear to have preferential access to food resources. Protein intake was not particularly high, nutritional patterns did not show improvement in this phase. Besides, pathologies—some likely linked to nutritional stress—remain very frequent. To test the results obtained for northern Italy, we also applied our bioarchaeological protocol (Sr, C, O, N) to other plain settlement systems, dated to the same period (2000-1400 BCE), namely the Campanian and the Danubian plains. The results, published in high-impact, confirm the high degree of connectivity between the nodes of the Bronze Age network, the introduction of broomcorn millet around 1540-1480 BCE and metal supply from multiple sources. 3. The rise and fall of the Terramare settlement system (1700-1150 BCE): nutrition, disease, mobility At the onset of the Terramare cycle, we observed a substantial decrease in pathologies and metabolic stress across all levels of society. This development was probably due to better nutritional conditions, further strengthened by innovations in agro-silvo-pastoral management, most notably the introduction of broomcorn millet as a food source for humans (around 1500 BCE, coherently with the middle Danube area) and, occasionally, as fodder for domestic animals. The flourishing of the Middle Bronze Age may also have been supported by intense immigration from neighbouring and distant regions, which would reflect both high levels of food surplus and the extraordinary demand for labour required for the construction and maintenance of the large infrastructures that characterize the Terramare landscape. In the Recent Bronze Age, long distance mobility appears to have decreased, likely as a consequence of the increasing saturation and hierarchization of the settlement system. As mentioned above, within the framework of the Malthus project, we were not able to identify virulent pathogen DNA in the analysed odontoskeletal remains that could justify the abandonment of the Po plain around 1200 BCE. However, using demographic parameters and strict typochronological sequences, we identified clues of crisis mortality at the cemetery of Casinalbo, as well as isotopic evidence suggesting a transition toward a warmer and drier climate around 1200 BCE, which likely resulted in a collapse of the food production.
Dettagli del progetto
Responsabile scientifico: Claudio Cavazzuti
Strutture Unibo coinvolte:
Dipartimento di Storia Culture Civiltà
Coordinatore:
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna(Italy)
Contributo totale di progetto: Euro (EUR) 227.960,00
Contributo totale Unibo: Euro (EUR) 84.476,00
Durata del progetto in mesi: 24
Data di inizio
28/09/2023
Data di fine:
28/02/2026
