79587 - Safety and Risk Analysis T

Learning outcomes

Aim of the course is to introduce the student to risk analysis, in the context of complex systems engineering and, more generally, of sustainable development. The knowledge that will be achieved relates to the main methods of qualitative and quantitative (probabilistic) approach to risk (and reliability) analysis. The student will also acquire the ability to use application tools such as reliability block diagram, FMEA, FMECA, fault tree, event tree, and Markov chains for the analysis of complex systems (nuclear, chemical and others).

Course contents

Systems engineering, risk analysis and sustainability.

Basic definitions: Hzard, Damage, Risk; the iso-risk curves and the risk matrix.

Probabilistic approach-vs- Deterministic approach. Elements of probability theory.

Component failures and system failures. The "bathtub curve".

Qualitative analysis and its tools (FMEA, OA, ...).

Quantitative analysis and its tools (Reliability Block Diagram; Graph Analysis; Fault Tree, Event Tree; Markow Chains; ...).

Human error analysis.

Risk analysis in the nuclear sector (PRA / PSA) and for other industries.

Learning from case histories.

Readings/Bibliography

Course notes.

J.C. Lee, N.J. McCormick, Risk and Safety Analysis of Nuclear Systems, Wiley (2011)

G. Petrangeli, Nuclear Safety, Elsevier (2019)

P. Vestrucci, Models for the assessment of human reliability, Franco Angeli (1990)

Teaching methods

Lectures, exercises, expert seminars

Assessment methods

Intermediate checks and final written test. Additional oral exam on request.

Teaching tools

Illustrative videos of risk and incident/accident situations


Videocalls with senior staff from institutions such as EUROFUSION, DDT, ITER and IAEA


Links with phd students in the above-mentioned realities

Office hours

See the website of Paolo Vestrucci