B5607 - ACTIONS ON STRUCTURES AND INFRASTRUCTURES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Conoscenze e abilità da conseguire

Gli studenti apprenderanno metodi per la progettazione ingegneristica in presenza di cambiamento climatico,ovvero non stazionarietà nei processi dinamici che determinano le forzanti su strutture e infrastrutture. Nel dettaglio, verranno presi in considerazione modelli non stazionari di data analysis e modelli deterministici transizionali per la simulazione di eventi climatici e meteorologici estremi, con particolare attenzione alle aree costiere dove vive circa il 40% della popolazione mondiale. In particolare le lezioni si concentreranno su: (1) stima dei valori estremi e dell’intera dinamica delle forzanti utilizzando: (a) modelli deterministici per strutture e infrastrutture selezionate, che utilizzeranno variabili in ingresso derivate da scenari climatici per diversi ipotesi di emissioni future; (b) metodi di data analysis, machine learning e deep learning con struttura e parametri variabili nel tempo. (2) Integrazione di modelli fisici e tecniche di assimilazione dei dati per la progettazione ingegneristica in presenza di cambiamenti climatici, con un approccio di minimizzazione d'incertezza. (3) Valutazione delle proprietà statistiche e fisiche del clima, del contesto socio-economico e delle strutture che possono portare alla combinazione di rischi climatici e conseguente amplificazione delle forzanti (eventi di tipo “black swan”). Il percorso di formazione sarà improntato alla discussione, valutazione d utilizzo dei risultati più recenti della ricerca.

Contenuti

The course focuses on one of the most challenging questions in civil and environmental engineering: how to estimate forcings for civil structures and infrastructures in the presence of climate change? It is a urgent question that is still dealt with in the research domain, but information at technical level are becoming available in the international community.  

The teacher will make extensive use of interaction with students. For example, students will be given the optional opportunity of delivering presentations to the class and the public, developing software, preparing open source contributions. Students may propose additional ideas for interaction.

Lectures will be recorded and made freely available on the web. Tutorial documents will be provided in the form of open web pages under CC license, and therefore may be freely re-used by students. Tutorial are already available on the web site of the teacher.

The lectures include: (1) an introduction to the impact of climate change on extreme wind, extreme precipitation, droughts, extreme marine weather, extreme river flows. (2) Advanced notions of probability, statistics and stochastic processes. (3) Non-stationary statistical models for the estimation of loads (4) Use of climate models for the estimation of loads (5) Open access data for the estimation of loads. (6) Integrated scenario analysis for the estimation of future climatic loads. (7) Sustainability analysis for climate change adaptation. (8) Structural solutions for climate change adaptation.

Part of the course will be delivered online to propose to the students an innovative and web based approach to education. Examples of online resources - for a different course -  are given at https://www.albertomontanari.it/ebookdroughts and https://www.albertomontanari.it/node/186.

Testi/Bibliografia

The teacher will prepare dynamic documents to support the learning process, which will be made available in the form of an open e-book, which may be open to interactive contribution by students.

Metodi didattici

The course is taught through lectures. Part of them are dedicated to simple data analysis and solutions for load estimation in the presence of climate change.

Modalità di verifica e valutazione dell'apprendimento

The preparation of the student will be assessed through a quiz with 30 multiple choice questions without penalty and a duration of 30 minutes. After the quiz a short oral examination will follow, with duration of about 5 minutes.

Students may be asked to solve a short exercise during the quiz and/or the oral part of the exam. The exam is passed if the student proves to be prepared on the theoretical principles and analytical derivations that were taught during the lectures. The teacher will explicitly mention to students during the lectures what are the basic questions that one needs to rigorously address in order to pass the exam. The speaking capability will also be evaluated. The laude is reserved to students who are excellently prepared and prove to have integrated their preparation with personal in-depth analysis.

Strumenti a supporto della didattica

The teacher will made available notes on his personal web-site. Scientific papers will be distributed during the lectures as well as summaries of recent research outcomes.

Lectures will be delivered with the physical presence of the teacher and will also be made available via online streaming.

Moreover, the teacher makes available videos of the lectures (see an example - for a different exam - athttps://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzpKSIoIBFCMyQTjxsbbA58wLdXVEF8RI).

Link ad altre eventuali informazioni

https://www.albertomontanari.it

Orario di ricevimento

Consulta il sito web di Alberto Montanari

Consulta il sito web di Serena Ceola