85183 - MICRO AND MACRO DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

Scheda insegnamento

Anno Accademico 2018/2019

Conoscenze e abilità da conseguire

By the end of the course the student is able to manage methodological statistical and demographic tools and to know event history analysis approaches. More specifically, the student is able to calculate and read the cohort and period demographic measures, to understand the relationships between long, medium and short term components of demographic evolutions and regimes, to analyse individual and biographical data with a cohort approach.

Programma/Contenuti

Reduced events, specific rates and probabilities. Renewable events and non-renewable events.

Basic principles of demographic analysis (intensity and tempo of the processes) in the absence of disturbances (in a pure state) and in the presence of disturbances.

The interference among demographic events. The assumption of the condition of independence between the process under study and other demographic processes.

Cohort analysis and period analysis (recapitulation).

Basic principles of period analysis. The fictitious cohort method and its criticism. The interpretation of period synthetic measures of intensity and of synthetic period tempo measures.

The translation approach: distributional distortion and Ryder translation models.

Lesthaege approach at the fertility analysis.

Life table by causes of death. Decomposition of life expectancy variations by age and cause of death.

Longevity and oldest old mortality risks evaluation.

Multiple decrement life tables. Modelling differential mortality. Mortality models with frailty. Application of smoothing techniques to mortality data.

Representing and measuring the rectangularization of the survival curves. Representing and modelling mortality surfaces.

Stochastic mortality models. Lee-Carter model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the Lee-Carter Model. Extension of the Lee-Carter model by inclusion of cohort effects.

Generalized age-period-cohort models. Projected lifetables and prediction intervals.

Construction and use of data from the Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database.

Using big data in demography. The IPUMS data collection.

Computer laboratory in R.

Testi/Bibliografia

The text of the lessons will be given out by the teachers who will also eventually suggests specific readings.

Modalità di verifica dell'apprendimento

The final exam aims to assess the achievement of the following learning objectives:

- knowledge of the general principles of demographic analysis in the presence of disturbances (in a pure state);

- types and sizes of interference between demographic events;

- analysis of longitudinal data applied to various demographic phenomena;

- estimate of mortality curves;

- demographic models and applications.

The exam is divided into three parts:

1) WRITTEN PART: questions on the theoretical background and exercises on the main demographic models and applications;

2) PRACTICAL PART: the student will carry out a project using real demographic data and the statistical software R;

3) ORAL PART: all the theoretical topics and demographic applications.

Strumenti a supporto della didattica

Teaching tools: Downlodable Power point files and other documents used during the lessons will be at the student disposal on AlmaDL Campus.
Practical examples on demographic data and models will be performed in computer laboratories

Orario di ricevimento

Consulta il sito web di Francesco Scalone