Abstract
BECAUSE (“plant Biodiversity and Ecosystem Change in protected Areas: land-Use impacts and Scenario Evaluation”) is an interdisciplinary, data-driven project aiming at understanding the historical and future trends of plant biodiversity in three Italian mountain areas undergoing a spontaneous process of rewilding. The three mountain protected areas span the Italian Peninsula: 1) Eastern Alps (Lagorai mountain range); 2) Northern Apennines (Foreste Casentinesi Monte Falterona e Campigna NP), and 3) Central Apennines (Velino Massif). BECAUSE has three scientific objectives: 1. To assess how temporal changes in land cover have affected the composition and spatial distribution of plant biodiversity, to highlight areas of maximum compositional change and to quantify the percentage of species for which rewilding has substantially improved or worsened conservation prospects; 2. Identify the multiple pressures that have led to changes in habitats and biodiversity and develop narratives to interpret these changes; 3. Predict the impact of different climate change scenarios on future vegetation distribution, combining vegetation vulnerability and exposure to future climate change to identify areas at greatest risk of vegetation change. To do so, we will use generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDMs) to model the dissimilarity of plant assemblages as a function of their geographical distances, ecological dissimilarities, and differences in land cover derived by remote sensing. After calibrating the GDMs with historical and newly collected vegetation plot data, we will create wall-to-wall maps of predicted species composition at different times, whose comparison will allow highlighting areas where change in land cover induced the largest changes in species composition, and quantifying the consequences for regional plant diversity.
Dettagli del progetto
Responsabile scientifico: Francesco Maria Sabatini
Strutture Unibo coinvolte:
Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche e Ambientali
Coordinatore:
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna(Italy)
Contributo totale di progetto: Euro (EUR) 240.886,00
Contributo totale Unibo: Euro (EUR) 114.659,00
Durata del progetto in mesi: 24
Data di inizio
30/11/2023
Data di fine:
21/02/2026
