98803 - Analysis of Public Opinion (LM)

Learning outcomes

This course introduces students to the methods used and the main hypotheses advanced in the social sciences to analyze the formation and change of opinions on issues of public concern, political attitudes, and voting choices. The course will cover both general hypotheses developed on a comparative basis and analyses of the socio-demographic characteristics and public opinion attitudes underlying the results of electoral contests held in democratic countries. At the end of the course, the student will be able to: - interpret and discuss the results of scientific analyses of public opinion attitudes and voting behavior; - examine the dividing lines (cleavages) along which the political attitudes of citizens in democratic countries are polarized.

Course contents

The course provides tools for analysing three interrelated phenomena: the divisions that run through public opinion on politically salient issues; the way in which preferences and positions on these issues are distributed within the electorate; and the judgement that different segments of the electorate express on the main political leaders and parties. In doing so, it also provides tools for interpreting the dynamic through which parties and leaders define their positions and communication strategies in relation to the expectations and preferences present in the sectors of the electorate they intend to represent.

Part one – Theories of electoral competition and opinion formation. Liberal democracy as a procedure interwoven with values and rights (political pluralism, legitimation of governments, rule of law). Leaders and voters according to rational choice theory: the spatial and proximity model (Hotelling, Downs), centripetal and centrifugal competition. Stokes’ critiques and the valence model; position, priorities and performance (issue ownership). Bounded rationality, heuristics and informational shortcuts in voting choices. The left-right axis: what it applies to and how it is measured.

Part two – Social cleavages, cultural change and new dimensions of conflict. The redistributive effects of globalisation and the digital revolution: winners, losers and the demand for representation; their institutional premises (European integration, WTO) and the opposition between supranational integration and national demarcation. The theory of cultural modernisation: cognitive mobilisation, materialist and post-materialist values, secularisation and emancipation from authority (Inglehart); the reaction to value change and the cultural backlash (Norris and Inglehart). The new dimensions of political conflict beyond the socio-economic left-right axis (GAL-TAN and alternative classifications). Right-wing and left-wing populisms; the new socio-demography of electorates and the difficulties of mainstream parties. Forms, measures and drivers of political participation. The dimensions of polarisation: positional and affective. The individual factors that shape the vote: social position, ideological predispositions and party identification, judgements on issues, performance and leaders.

Part three – Methods and techniques for measuring opinions. The method of empirical research applied to the study of opinions: formulation of hypotheses, operational definitions and indicators, the research cycle. Opinions, attitudes, value orientations and preferences: definitions and differences; the different cognitive purposes of opinion polls and of surveys (scientific sample-based studies); the use of polls as a means to study or, instead, to steer public opinion. The design of sample surveys and the construction of questionnaires: wording, question order, priming effects; the measurement of latent attitudes through batteries of questions and scaling techniques. Sampling: probability and non-probability samples, sampling error and the margin of error of estimates. Modes of administration (mail, face-to-face, telephone, online) with their respective advantages, limitations and biases (interviewer effects, social desirability, respondent self-selection).

Final part – The cases: Giorgia Meloni and Donald Trump. The final part of the course applies the categories and tools of the previous parts to two leaders who have attracted broad support and gained leading roles in Italian and American politics. Although they have often been grouped under the same label of the “populist radical right” and subscribe to similar ideological positions, Meloni and Trump display rather different paths, positions and leadership styles. The analysis of the two trajectories will highlight the influence of their different competitive contexts, party structures and domestic and international institutional constraints, as well as of the different demands present in their electoral bases, as they emerge from survey data.

Readings/Bibliography

Salvatore Vassallo (2026). Sistemi politici comparati. Democrazie e autocrazie. Bologna, Il Mulino. paragrafi 2.1 e 2.2, cap. 3, cap. 4, cap. 11, cap. 14.

Paolo Natale (2022). Sondaggi: le tecniche, i rischi, il futuro. Roma-Bari, Laterza.

Salvatore Vassallo e Rinaldo Vignati (2023). Fratelli di Giorgia: il partito della destra nazional conservatrice. Bologna, Il Mulino. // Edizione inglese: S. Vassallo e R. Vignati (2024). Brothers of Italy and the Rise of the Italian National Conservative Right under Giorgia Meloni. Springer Nature Switzerland, Cham. Edizione inglese scaricabile via proxy Unibo [https://link-springer-com.ezproxy.unibo.it/book/10.1007/978-3-031-52189-8] .

Mario Del Pero (2025). Buio americano. Gli Stati Uniti e il mondo nell'era Trump, Bologna, Il Mulino.

Additional readings provided by the lecturer and made available on Virtuale during the course.

 

Teaching methods

The course consists of fifteen working sessions in which students are invited to take an active part. About ten sessions will consist of lectures, devoted to the first two parts of the programme and to setting up the analysis of the cases. In the other five sessions, attending students will take turns presenting and discussing a case study related to the course contents and agreed upon with the lecturer. Each presentation is assigned a discussant, chosen from among the other attending students, whose task is to open the discussion with at least two critical remarks; the ability to answer questions from the discussant, the lecturer and the class is an integral part of the assessment of this component. All classes will be held in person.

Assessment methods

It is very unlikely — if not altogether impossible — to pass the exam having “studied” exclusively on notes or summaries circulating online, or only on the presentations used in class and shared by the lecturer. The summaries circulating online are not only insufficient but often misleading. To pass the exam it is necessary to have read and studied the reference texts. The classes and the slides make it easier to become familiar with the vocabulary and the logic of political science analysis. Attending classes is all the more useful if students come prepared for an active exchange with the lecturer, having read in advance the reference texts for each class.

All the components that contribute to the final mark take place in person, in handwritten or oral form. The final oral exam is mandatory for all students, attending and non-attending.

Students who attend at least 80% of the classes (12 out of 15) will be considered attending students. No justification for further absences will be considered by the lecturer; the only excused absences are those for which an authorisation has been obtained from the Unibo offices. No blended mode is available: the course can be followed exclusively in person. Only students who have obtained a specific authorisation from the Unibo offices may follow the classes remotely.

Attending students. Assessment is based on two components: (a) the in-class presentation of a case study agreed upon with the lecturer, lasting about 15 minutes and accompanied by a maximum of 4 slides (charts, headings, short bullet points; not text to be read aloud), followed by the discussion, which accounts for 25% of the final mark; (b) a mandatory final oral exam, in dedicated exam sessions, with questions on the topics covered in class and on the reference texts (in the parts indicated in class), which accounts for 75% of the final mark.

Non-attending students. Assessment is based on two components: (a) a written test, administered exclusively on paper and to be completed in pen in a supervised classroom, consisting of 11 open-ended questions designed to verify adequate study of the texts listed in the bibliography; during the test the use of electronic devices or personal materials is not allowed: sheets and forms are provided by the lecturer; (b) a mandatory oral exam on the same texts. The written test and the oral exam each account for 50% of the final assessment.

In-class presentation (attending students). The presentation is marked out of thirty on the basis of four criteria: relevance to the course contents; correct use of concepts, theories and data; clarity and conciseness of the exposition; quality of the answers given in the discussion. Grading: essentially descriptive treatment, uncertain answers in the discussion → 21; correct treatment, but with limited links to the concepts of the course → 24; accurate treatment, autonomous connections between theories and data, pertinent and well-argued answers → 27; rigorous analysis with elements of originality, full command of the contents also in the discussion → 30. A marked discrepancy between the materials presented and the command demonstrated in the discussion will negatively affect the assessment of this component.

Written test (non-attending students). The written test consists of 11 open-ended questions. The time available to complete the test is 45 minutes. Each answer is awarded +3 points if it is exhaustive and correct, +2 if it is correct but incomplete, +1 if it contains minimal correct elements, 0 if it is missing or if it combines correct and incorrect information, and -1 if it is entirely wrong. During the test the use of supporting materials such as textbooks, notes or electronic devices is not allowed. The maximum attainable score is therefore 33. The test is passed, and gives access to the oral exam, with a minimum score of 18.

Oral exam. The purpose of the oral exam is to verify the student’s ability to apply the knowledge acquired and to make the necessary logical-deductive connections. Grading of the final mark: preparation on a very limited number of topics covered in the course and analytical ability that emerges only with the lecturer’s help, expression in overall correct language → 18-19; preparation on a limited number of topics covered in the course and autonomous analytical ability only on purely executive questions, expression in correct language → 20-24; preparation on a large number of topics covered in the course, ability to make autonomous choices of critical analysis, command of the specific terminology → 25-29; essentially exhaustive preparation on the topics covered in the course, ability to make autonomous choices of critical analysis and connection, full command of the specific terminology and capacity for argumentation and self-reflection → 30-32.

The final mark results from the weighted average of the two assessments. Students who reach a score of 31 or higher are awarded the distinction (lode).

Students with SLD or temporary or permanent disabilities: it is recommended that they contact in good time the relevant University office (https://site.unibo.it/studenti-con-disabilita-e-dsa/en); the office will propose to the students concerned any appropriate adjustments, which must in any case be submitted, 15 days in advance, to the approval of the lecturer, who will assess their appropriateness also in relation to the learning objectives of the course.

AI may be used to support individual study, for example for further exploration, summaries and self-assessment. It may be used to support the preparation of the in-class presentation (bibliographic search; conceptual clarification; preliminary verification of factual information, to be confirmed with accredited sources), but not to generate the slides or the contents of the presentation.

Teaching tools

Video projector, cloud sharing of course materials, sharing of some of the video-recorded lectures.

Office hours

See the website of Salvatore Vassallo