69829 - Demography (A.C.)

Learning outcomes

The student knows the main models of life expectancy and applications. More specifically, the student will be able to forecast population and subgroups of population and to apply these modelling technique to insurance issues.

Course contents

Recall of some basic concepts of demographic analysis: crude and specific rates, standardization methods, Lexis diagram, period and cohort analysis, life tables; stationary population.

Recal of survival analysis: survivorship functions of Kaplan Meier, Hazard function, parametric and semiparametric models.

Analysis of mortality at specific ages.

Application of smoothing techniques to mortality data.

Forecasting mortality risks. Lee-Carter model.

Insurance applications.

Mortality models with frailty (some notes)

Readings/Bibliography

Notes of the lectures will be given during the course. It is possible to download them from the web site of AMS Campus - AlmaDL - Università di Bologna

Suggested readings:

- S. Preston, P. Heuveline, M. Guillot.

"Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes" (chapters 1, 2 e 3)

- E. Pitacco, M. Denuit, S. Haberman, Olivieri.

"Modelling Longevity Dynamics for Pensions and Annuity Business"  (chapters 2, 3 e 4)

- D. G. Kleinbaum, M. Klein

"Survival Analysis" (chapters 1, 2, 3)

Teaching methods

All topics are illustrated with demographic data using some demographic software packages.

Assessment methods

The final exam aims at evaluating the achievement of the following educational targets: - knowledge of the demographic methods and models shown during the frontal lectures; - ability to employ these techniques to analyze and forecast mortality trends; - knowledge of the main demographic software packages.
The exam consists of a practical test in the computer lab and an oral test.

Office hours

See the website of Francesco Scalone