- Docente: Paola Monari
- Credits: 5
- SSD: SECS-S/01
- Language: Italian
- Teaching Mode: Traditional lectures
- Campus: Bologna
- Corso: Second cycle degree programme (LS) in Statistical Sciences (cod. 0365)
Learning outcomes
The course presents an outline of different approaches to statistical decision theory and deals with methods and techniques for making ' optimal' decisions.
The level of knowledge required is that of a second level course in probability and statistical inference.
Course contents
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The problem of decision under uncertainty - Decision trees: simple and complex decision trees
- Statistical inference: tests of significance as sequential decision procedures; testing hypotheses; the likelihood principle and optional stopping
- Conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem
- Assessment of utilities: utility function
- Terminal analysis: opportunity loss and the value of perfect information
- Case studies
Readings/Bibliography
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J. W. Pratt, H. Raiffa, R. Schlaifer, 1996, Introduction to statistical decision theory, MIT Press, Massachussets (sections 1, 4, 6, 10,12, 20)
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P. H. Garthwaite et al., 2002 (2nd edition), Statistical inference, Oxford University Press,
Oxford - Lecture notes
Teaching methods
- lectures
- seminarial lectures
Assessment methods
oral exam
Office hours
See the website of Paola Monari