Abstract
Abstract Climate lobbying plays an increasingly important role in shaping public opinion and influencing climate policy, yet the mechanisms through which lobbying strategies interact with individual belief formation and social networks remain poorly understood. The ALMONDO project, funded by the European Union through the NextGenerationEU programme (PRIN2022-PNRR), addressed this challenge by developing an integrated framework combining empirical data analysis, behavioural experimentation, mathematical modelling, and computational simulation. Bringing together researchers from Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, the University of Bologna, the University of Camerino, and the University of Naples Parthenope, the project produced open scientific resources and software tools to support the study of climate lobbying and evidence-based policy design.
Results achieved
The project assembled and analysed original datasets integrating information from the EU Transparency Register, LobbyFacts, public consultations, X (formerly Twitter), and Reddit to characterize lobbying organizations, climate narratives, and online opinion dynamics. These analyses provided the empirical basis for studying lobbying strategies, network structures, and the determinants of corporate climate lobbying [1,6]. Building upon the empirical evidence from the project, ALMONDO developed a novel Bayesian-inspired model of opinion dynamics that incorporates behavioural mechanisms such as underreaction and directional motivated reasoning, together with heterogeneous lobbying strategies operating over complex social networks. The model was theoretically analysed and progressively refined [2], with its methodological foundations published in [7]. To estimate and validate the behavioural mechanisms underlying the model, the project designed and implemented a large-scale survey experiment on climate-change beliefs, opinions, and actions. The collected evidence was used to estimate Bayesian-like belief updating under cognitive biases and to calibrate the simulation model [3,8]. The calibrated model was implemented as an open-source simulation framework and integrated into a user-friendly web interface that allows users to explore alternative lobbying strategies, communication policies, and network scenarios [4]. The project conclusions and policy recommendations were summarized in the Policy Brief on Climate Lobbying and Opinion Dynamics [5]. All reports, publications, software, and documentation have been made publicly available through the ALMONDO project website, providing an open, reproducible and reusable platform for future research on climate communication, lobbying, and opinion dynamics. References: 1. ALMONDO Project. (2024). Report on Climate Lobbying and Opinions. https://almondo-project.github.io/publications/2024/05/31/ALMONDO-Report.html 2. ALMONDO Project. (2024). Report on Climate Lobbying Model. https://almondo-project.github.io/publications/2024/11/29/ALMONDO-Model-Report.html 3. ALMONDO Project. (2025). Report on Survey Experiment. https://almondo-project.github.io/publications/2024/11/29/ALMONDO-Survey-Report.html 4. ALMONDO Project. (2026). Report on Data–Model Integration and Software Implementation. https://almondo-project.github.io/publications/2026/03/20/ALMONDO-Data-Model-Software-Report.html 5. ALMONDO Project. (2026). Policy Brief on Climate Lobbying and Opinion Dynamics. https://almondo-project.github.io/publications/2026/02/26/ALMONDO-Policy-Brief.html 6. Errichiello, G., Popoyan, L., Bonasia, M., and Falcone, P. M., 2026. Composition and Determinants of Corporate Climate Lobbying: Evidence from Italy. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 33(1), 189–216. https://doi.org/10.1002/csr.70148 7. Giachini, D., Ciambezi, L., Del Rosso, V., Fornari, F., Pansanella, V., Popoyan, L. and Sîrbu, A., 2026. Navigating the lobbying landscape: Insights from opinion dynamics models. IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems. DOI: 10.1109/TCSS.2026.3683772 8. Giachini, D., Rossello, A., and Ciambezi, L. , 2026. A Survey Experiment on Climate Change Beliefs, Opinions, and Actions. LEM Working Paper Series, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna.Project details
Unibo Team Leader: Alina Sirbu
Unibo involved Department/s:
Dipartimento di Informatica - Scienza e Ingegneria
Coordinator:
Scuola Sup. di Studi Univ. e Perfezionamento S.Anna di PISA(Italy)
Total Unibo Contribution: Euro (EUR) 33.279,18
Project Duration in months: 27
Start Date:
30/11/2023
End Date:
28/02/2026
