B5532 - STATISTICA ECONOMICA

Learning outcomes

At the end of the course, the student will have knowledge of the main aspects related to the observation and basic statistical measurement of economic and financial phenomena. In particular, the student will be able to: -understand the nature and content of the main sources of official statistical-economic-financial information -identify the main aggregates and statistical indicators for the functioning of an economic-financial system and understand their relationships - analyze the temporal and spatial variation of economic-financial aggregates -construct synthetic measures of the production system and production models - analyze consumption behaviors and income distribution -understand introductory elements of risk analysis and portfolio management.

Course contents

Part 1: Measurement and Analysis of Economic Phenomena

Introduction to Economic Statistics: The problem of measuring economic phenomena. Sources of statistical-economic information and main archives. Data quality.

Index Numbers: Elementary index numbers and their properties. Series of fixed-base and moving-base index numbers. Laspeyres, Paasche, and Fisher index numbers. Major index numbers calculated by Istat (NIC, FOI, and IPCA). Deflation using price index numbers calculated by chaining.

Measuring the Variation of Economic Aggregates in Space: Spatial comparisons of economic aggregates using exchange rates and "purchasing power parity." Elementary economic parities. Bilateral and unilateral comparisons. EKS and GK methods.

The National Accounting System and the Model of Sectoral Interdependencies: The European System of Integrated Economic Accounts (SEC95), relevant balances, and the quantitative description of the functioning of the economic system. Input-output tables and the Leontief model. Uses of the model for economic analysis and policy.

Analysis of Time Series: Graphical representations. Classical methods for analyzing temporal economic fluctuations. Unobservable components of a time series. Estimation of components. Moving average method. Exponential smoothing.

Part 2: Measurement and Analysis of Economic Operators' Behavior

Analysis of the Business Operator: Analysis of the production structure. Size and concentration indicators. Measures of specialization and localization of economic activities.

Analysis of the Business Operator: Measures of production and productivity. Production and cost functions. Brief overview of efficiency measures.

Analysis of the Family Operator: Sources and structure of consumption. Models for analyzing the allocation of consumption over time. Models for the analysis of spending behaviors.

Analysis of the Family Operator: Analysis of income distribution. Measures of inequality in income distribution. Indicators for the analysis of poverty and well-being.

Labor Market: Definitions and sources for labor market analysis. Indicators for measuring labor demand and supply. Brief overview of interpretative models of the labor market.

Part 3: Measurement and Analysis of Financial Phenomena

Introduction to the Measurement of Financial Phenomena: Sources of statistical-financial information. Descriptive statistical analysis of financial variables. Price indices for stocks and financial assets.

Return Analysis: Of a financial asset, portfolios of two financial assets, portfolios of n financial assets.

Portfolio Theory: Diversification. Construction of the efficient frontier. The Capital Market Line and the Security Market Line.

Models for the Analysis of Financial Markets: The market model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Model specification, estimation methods, hypothesis testing. Advanced models.

Case Studies.

Readings/Bibliography

Giorgio Marbach, Statistica economica, UTET, 1991.

Cheli B., A. Coli (2015, 2a edizione), Lezioni di statistica economica, Il Borghetto. Il testo è in corso di revisione, una copia pdf in bozza è disponibile sulla piattaforma "Virtuale" di UNIBO.

Guarini R., F. Tassinari (2000), Statistica Economica. Problemi e metodi di analisi, il Mulino, 3°

G.M. Gallo, B. Pacini (2002), Metodi quantitativi per i mercati finanziari, Carocci editore, Roma. Chapter 2.

M. Costa (2001), Metodi statistici nell'analisi di variabili finanziarie, CLUEB, Bologna.

 

Alternative program to obtain the CFU necessary to teach Law and Economics in upper secondary schools.

Cheli B., A. Coli (2015, 2a edizione), Lezioni di statistica economica, Il Borghetto. Il testo è in corso di revisione, una copia pdf in bozza è disponibile sulla piattaforma "Virtuale" di UNIBO.

M. Costa (2001), Metodi statistici nell'analisi di variabili finanziarie, CLUEB, Bologna.

Teaching methods

Theory and empirical applications. Students can use STATA with the Unibo license, available at the following link: https://www.unibo.it/secure/software-stata/istruzioni.aspx#licenza .

Students intending to attend the laboratory session in person must complete a safety training session, available in e-learning mode (modules 1 and 2) at https://elearning-sicurezza.unibo.it/ .

Assessment methods

The purpose of the exam is to assess the achievement of the following learning objectives:

• A thorough understanding of the statistical tools presented during the lectures.

• The ability to apply these tools to analyze economic and financial phenomena.

• The ability to use the results obtained to interpret the phenomenon under study and to support decision-making processes.

The exam consists of a written test and an optional oral integration (which may raise, lower, or confirm the written exam grade). The written test includes both theoretical questions on the methods (commonly referred to as "theory questions") and practical exercises in which students must demonstrate their ability to apply the tools acquired. A sample exam with example questions is available on the InsegnamentiOnLine (IOL) platform.

No support materials such as textbooks, notes, or digital devices are allowed during the exam.

The written test may be organized either as two partial exams (one after the first two modules and one after the third module) or as a comprehensive exam. In the case of partial exams, the final grade will be determined by the arithmetic mean of the two scores, weighted by credits.

Students who:

• Fail both partials must retake the written exam in its comprehensive form.

• Fail one of the two partials must either take the oral integration or retake the written exam in comprehensive form.

• Pass both partials and wish to improve their final grade may take the oral integration (which can modify the grade by up to ±3 points).

In the case of two partial exams, the oral integration takes place during the exam session of the second partial and will focus on the topics of the failed module. In the case of the comprehensive exam, the oral integration will be held during the same session as the written test and may cover topics from the entire course.

The duration of the written exam is 60 minutes for each partial and 120 minutes for the comprehensive exam. The grading scale ranges from 0 to 30 cum laude (with a maximum of 33 points; honors is awarded for scores of 31 and 33).

It will be possible to discuss the test and ask for clarification on the date of verbalization. The possibility of using alternative office hours to inspect the test is reserved for exceptional cases with a valid reason. Verbalization can occur in the absence of the student.

Teaching tools

Empirical case studies in the computer lab.

Office hours

See the website of Cristina Bernini

See the website of Silvia Emili