78991 - Demography and Survival Analysis

Learning outcomes

At the end of the course, the student possesses the necessary knowledge to understand and apply the main methods of demography and survival analysis, as well as to read and correctly analyze population data. Specifically, the student will be able to:

Estimate population trends and construct and interpret key demographic indicators.
Build life tables based on aggregated data.
Estimate survival curves using non-parametric techniques on individual-level data.
Evaluate the consequences of structural changes on the natural dynamics of the population.

Course contents

Introduction to Demography
Basic concepts in demographic and health studies.

Data sources: National and international data sources.

Population structure:

• Population pyramids
• Indicators of population composition by age and gender
• Indicators related to employment status

Laboratory activity: construction of population pyramids and demographic indicators using Microsoft Excel.

Analysis of population change:

• Population balancing equation
• Natural increase and net migration
• Population growth rates: arithmetic, geometric, and continuous
• Population doubling time

Crude mortality, fertility, immigration, and emigration rates.
Age-specific mortality, fertility, immigration, and emigration rates.

Separating population processes from population structures:

• Direct standardisation method
• Indirect standardisation method

Laboratory activity: calculation of crude, specific, and standardised rates using Microsoft Excel.

The Lexis diagram:

• Cohort, period, and age analysis
• Age- and calendar-year-specific rates
• Rates between successive birthdays and by birth cohort
• Birth-cohort- and calendar-year-specific rates
• Probabilities between successive birthdays and by birth cohort
• Birth-cohort- and calendar-year-specific probabilities

Fertility measures:

• Total fertility rate for synthetic cohorts and birth cohorts
• Quantum and tempo of fertility
• Birth-order-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and mean age at childbirth
• Applications to the Italian context

Laboratory activity: calculation of fertility rates using Microsoft Excel.

Fertility and mortality in historical perspective:

• The demographic transition
• Diminishing returns and population growth
• Malthusian mechanisms
• Population pressure, development, and the demographic transition

Health and epidemiological transitions:

• Changes in causes of death
• Pandemics
• Healthy life years and gains in life expectancy
• Differential mortality by cause of death and educational attainment

Population ageing:

• Frailty, functional decline, and loss of autonomy
• The Silver Economy

The Second Demographic Transition:
Family dissolution and emerging household and family forms.

Generations:
Definitions and changes in the transition to adulthood.

Migration:

• The evolution of migration in Italy and its relationship with demographic changes in the non-migrant population
• Characteristics of the migrant population and regularisation programmes
• Italian emigration abroad

Demographic forecasts, projections, and scenarios:

• Population momentum
• Population policies

Life tables and biometric functions

Laboratory activity: construction of life tables and graphical representation of biometric functions using Microsoft Excel.

Survival analysis:

• Analysis of individual-level data: time to event, censoring, and truncation
• Non-parametric estimation of the cumulative survival probability: the Kaplan–Meier estimator
• The hazard function: definition and estimation methods
• Relationship between the hazard, survival, and probability density functions of the survival-time random variable
• Comparison of survival distributions across two or more groups: the log-rank test and rank-based tests
• The Cox proportional hazards model: definition, assumptions, estimation of regression coefficients, and related hypothesis tests

Laboratory activity: application of survival analysis using Stata.

Readings/Bibliography

Notes of the lectures will be available through the Virtuale platform.
General references, particularly useful for students not attending lessons:
- G.C. Blangiardo, Elementi di demografia, Il Mulino, Bologna

- M. Livi Bacci A Concise History of World Population. Wiley-Blackwell.

- G. Caselli, V. Egidi, C. Strozza, L'Italia longeva. Dinamiche e diseguaglianze a cavallo di due secoli, Il Mulino Bologna

Teaching methods

The program of the course is fully presented during the hours of frontal lessons. The lessons will be accompanied by laboratory exercises once a week aimed at applying the methodologies theoretically exposed during the lectures on real data. The software used will be Excel and STATA.

As concerns the teaching methods of this course unit, all students must attend Module 1, 2 [https://site.unibo.it/tutela-promozione-salute-sicurezza/it/corsi-di-formazione/formazione-obbligatoria-su-sicurezza-e-salute-per-svolgimento-di-tirocinio-tesi-laboratorio] on Health and Safety online.

Assessment methods

The course will be taught during the second semester.

No mid-term examinations are scheduled.

Two examination sessions will be held during the summer examination period, in June and July. A third and a fourth examination session will be held in September and February, respectively.

The examination is designed to assess the achievement of the following learning outcomes:

• Knowledge of the demographic methods and survival models presented during lectures
• Ability to apply these methods to analyse and interpret the main survival measures for a given population
• Knowledge of, and ability to use, the main software packages employed in demographic analysis

The examination consists of a written test held in a computer laboratory. The test lasts between 60 and 75 minutes and includes three exercises to be completed using Excel and three or four open-ended questions to be answered using Word.

Grades are awarded on a scale of 30.

Grading criteria:

• 18–23: Sufficient knowledge and analytical skills, although limited to a restricted number of topics covered during the course
• 24–27: Technically adequate knowledge, with some limitations regarding the topics covered; good analytical skills, although not particularly developed
• 28–30: Excellent knowledge of a broad range of topics covered during the course; good analytical and critical-thinking skills
• 30 with honours: Excellent, in-depth, and comprehensive knowledge of the topics covered during the course; outstanding critical analysis and ability to establish connections between different topics

The use of notes or books is not permitted during the examination. However, students may use a formula sheet.

Registration for examinations must be completed exclusively through the AlmaEsami platform.

Students with specific learning disabilities, temporary disabilities, or permanent disabilities are advised to contact the relevant University office well in advance: https://site.unibo.it/studenti-con-disabilita-e-dsa/en . The office will propose any appropriate adjustments. These must be submitted to the course instructor for approval at least 15 days before the examination. The instructor will assess their suitability, also in relation to the learning outcomes of the course.

Teaching tools

The tools used for conducting the lesson are the video projector and the blackboard. Slides will be projected and made available to students afterward.

The Virtual Platform is the primary means of instructional support and keeping students updated about the course and important communications.

Videos and computer laboratories will be utilized.

"Students with learning disorders and\or temporary or permanent disabilities: please, contact the office responsible (https://site.unibo.it/studenti-con-disabilita-e-dsa/en/for-students) as soon as possible so that they can propose acceptable adjustments. The request for adaptation must be submitted in advance (15 days before the exam date) to the lecturer, who will assess the appropriateness of the adjustments, taking into account the teaching objectives."

Office hours

See the website of Livia Elisa Ortensi