17257 - Opinion Polls Methodology

Learning outcomes

Knowledge and abilities to achieve

Aims of the class

The opinion polls methodology is a very interesting topic,especially in the context of democratic states.Some noctions of inductive statistics are required in order to define a poll as representative of a great number of citizens.Moreover,the course will analyse the pros and cons of the poll.

During the class a deliberative poll will be presented to the students.It is a poll elaborated by the american scholar James Fischkin and it will be studied to improve the pros and to lessen the cons of the poll.

Course contents

  Programme:

Total and sample statistical survey: a historical perspective.Purposive samples,referring to quota sampling.Simple and complex planes of probabilistic survey.The universe of the possible samples in the simple and casual sample.Parameters and statistics.Average,variance and frequency.Desiderable properties of the estimators.Estimation by the means of mean range and sample size.Estimation by the means of relative frequency and sample size.Estimation of the population size(sample of consecutive captures).Test hypothesis referring to a wave of the relative frequency.Time and sample survey.The plane of sample survey.The questionnaires.Different tecniques of questionnaire administration.Sample survey by phone and by computer.Opinion polls.Media and opinion polls.Elections and opinion polls.Opinion polls: national and international debate.

Readings/Bibliography

G.Betti,Manuale di teoria e tecnica dei sondaggi,Clueb,Bologna,1999.

G.Bettuzzi,Introduzione all'inferenza statistica,Clueb,Bologna,2003.

G.Betti,Appunti sui sondaggi di opinione,Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche"Paolo Fortunati",Strumenti per la didattica,2005,n.3

Assessment methods

Assessment methods:

One exercise in class

After that,an oral examination

Teaching tools

Bybliography

G.Betti,Manuale di teoria e tecnica dei sondaggi,Clueb,Bologna,1999

G.Bettuzzi,Introduzione all'inferenza statistica,Clueb,Bologna,2003.

G.Betti,Appunti sui sondaggi di opinione,Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "Paolo Fortunati"Strumenti per la didattica,2005,n.3

Office hours

See the website of Giampiero Betti