The last two centuries have witnessed a rapid growth of the human population, which according to the most recent estimates of the United Nations Organisation could reach eleven billion by 2100.
These projections do not, or only partially, take into account the increasingly profound changes that our species is bringing about on the planet, first and foremost climate change. But what, in turn, will be the effects of global warming on population growth and the planet's geopolitical balance? Let's find out with Raya Muttarak, lecturer at the Department of Statistical Sciences 'Paolo Fortunati' and principal investigator of the European POPCLIMA project.
What are the contents and goals of the POPCLIMA project?
POPCLIMA (Population Dynamics under Global Climate Change), funded by the European Research Council, is the first project to study in depth the impact of climate change on human population dynamics. A first important goal is to determine how much and through which mechanisms changing climate will influence the fertility, mortality and migration of peoples.
It will also be important to examine whether different populations will be impacted differently, and to be able to predict future demographic dynamics in a climate change scenario.
What are the elements that make this research particularly innovative in terms of content and method?
Studies to date focus either on the effects on climate of human population growth or on identifying the populations most exposed to the dangers of climate change. Instead, knowledge about how climate will influence demographic changes is scarce; indeed, it is not even entirely clear, for example, whether climate changes will increase or decrease human fertility and mortality. This project is extremely topical, as the effects of climate change are already there for all to see. Its experimental approach is particularly innovative: it intersects climate, demographic and socio-economic data from different sources (social media and questionnaires), and uses mathematical models to identify causation and artificial intelligence to handle the large samples of data collected.
What do you see as the benefits to society?
If changing climate does affect human fertility, mortality and migration, then demographic projections will have to be amended. The POPCLIMA project, therefore, responds to an urgent need, as correct population forecasts condition crucial political and economic choices at the global level.
When did the POPCLIMA project kick off and how long will it last? What results have you achieved so far?
I obtained ERC Consolidator funding in December 2020, but the project only kicked off in January 2022 due to the pandemic and my simultaneous move to Bologna. The funding lasts five years, and so far we have analysed the impact of climate change on internal migration, with preliminary data showing increased migration within Africa, Asia Pacific and North America.
When you heard that the project had won ERC funding, how did you feel? What does this recognition mean for your research path?
Winning the ERC funding has positively changed my personal and professional life, giving me the opportunity to put together a strong research group in a welcoming, interdisciplinary environment and in a beautiful city. For me, this is the first step towards building an effective team for studying populations, sustainability and resilience through a research project that is future-oriented and able to grow even after the ERC funding ends.
You recently arrived at the University of Bologna. Why did you choose to move to the Alma Mater?
The Alma Mater offers an attractive and competitive environment for ERC funding winners. In addition to the honour of working at the oldest university in the world, here I can collaborate with Nicola Barban, who also works at the Department of Statistical Sciences and won an ERC grant in 2019 for the GENPOP project. Together, we plan to use the available funds to expand the field of demographic research in Italy, strengthening its reputation internationally through the excellent research carried out together with UNIBO colleagues and the young researchers in our teams.
RicERCatori in Evidenza is the column dedicated to the University of Bologna's cutting-edge research funded by the European Research Council-ERC and its protagonists.