45320 - Economic Policies Assessment Methods

Learning outcomes

The lectures present the problems encountered in designing the policies evaluation and the basic statistical methods for impact evaluation

Course contents

1.      Introduction : Definitions of intervention and impact analysis; micro and macro evaluation; 

2.      Institutional aspects of evaluation: Evaluation in Europe; The use of the evaluation in regional policies; The evaluation of European Regional Founds

3.      Evaluation by Indicators: the structure and characteristics of indicators system; pros and cons of the use of indicators for policy evaluation

4.      Impact evaluation: the fundamental problem of causal inference; definition of impact, the counterfactual approach. Estimation of the counterfactual : selection effects and omitted variables bias. Experimental and non experimental approach.

5.      Evaluation methods:  Evaluation of average treatment effect; Models with homogeneous effects; selection on non observable variables: difference-in-differences estimators, Random Growth Rate model.

6.      Methods when selection variables are observable: matching, matching based on propensity score, regression discontinuity design, instrumental variables.

 

Readings/Bibliography

1.  J. M. Wooldridge (2002), Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data, MIT Press, cap. 18

2. Rettore E., U. Trivellato e A. Martini (2003), La valutazione delle politiche del lavoro in  presenza di selezione: migliorare la teoria, i metodi o i dati?, Politica Economica, n.3, 2003,      301-342

3. R. Blundell, M. Costa Dias (2002), Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical  microeconomics, Cemmap working paper CWP10/02, The Institute for fiscal studies, Department of economics, Ucl

 4. Heckman J.J., Smith J.A. (1999), The pre-program earnings dip and the determinants of  participation in a social programme. Implications for simple program evaluation strategies, The Economic Journal, 109, 313-348.
 
 5. James J. Heckman; V. Joseph Hotz (1989), Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for    Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 84, No. 408. (Dec., 1989), pp. 862-874.

6. Angrist J.D. and A.B. Krueger (1999), Empirical strategies in labor economics, in O.  Ashenfelter and D. Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3A, Amsterdam, North-Holland,  pp.1300-1305.

7. Dehejia R.H., Wahba S. (2002), Propensity score matching methods for nonexperimental casual studies, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(1), 151-161.

8. Rosenbaum P., D. Rubin (1983), The central role of propensity score in observational studies  for causal effect, Biometrika, 70, 41-55.

Teaching methods

Examples from literature and case studies on some policy instruments

Assessment methods

Oral examination

Teaching tools

Slides presented by the teacher

Office hours

See the website of Pinuccia Pasqualina Calia