93405 - International Conflicts (50)

Course contents

International crises; classification of wars and historical trends in warfare; game theory for dummies; compellence, coercive diplomacy, and deterrence; the bargaining model of war; selection effects; psychology, organizations, and armed conflict; costly signal and audience costs; ethnic conflict; origin and duration of civil wars; the impact of climate on human conflict; gender attitude toward the use of force; gender inequality and conflict; historical trends in modern terrorism; psychological and rationalist explanations of terrorism; origins of genocide; psychology of perpetrators of atrocities and genocides.

UPDATE 09/05/2018

I have updated the case study on China-US competition to cover the period since the previous year (basically, the Trump Presidency). I have also added a new case study on Russian foreign policy. The «new wars» are no longer part of the course. Complex, peer-reviewed articles on Isis were a bit too much for undergrads; instead of assigning them, this year I will deliver lecture notes (in progress, but hopefully completed by December) aimed at explaining the Shia-Sunni split, and other schisms within each of the two main branches of Islam. This is in turn connected with state rivalries (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Iran) and with some of the main Islamic terrorist organizations. I have added but a few remarks to the lessons on deterrence, on conflict/migrations stemming from water scarcity, and on genocide. You'd better download the more recent version of the lecture notes; not the older ones.

A special thanks goes Alessandro Pandolfi, who helped me sorting out useful articles and books on Russian cyber activities.

UPDATE 05/09/2019

The main new topic we shall deal with this year is the US decision to withdraw from the INF treaty. I'll try to explain what intermediate nuclear missiles are, why they are considered so destabilizing, how was the INF treaty come about, and why is now in crisis. I am also planning to prepare a few .doc notes to facilitate non-attendant students. As for the syllabus: Luca Bettinelli's article is now a bit outdated, so I have removed it. I have added Andrea Gilli's and Mauro Gilli's important article on China's technological progress (or lack thereof) and the perspectives for catching up.

 

UPDATE 12/09/2020

This is likely to be the last year I teach in Forlì. I have updated the lectures on Islamic terrorism by adding some material related to the MENA region. I am also working on the lecture on the bargaining model of war, and adding new causal mechanisms to explain the outbreak of war. I am toying with the idea of updated the part on climate, resources, and conflict, too, e.g. by adding some notes on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. i might perhaps also add something related to climate change and how it affects the spread of pandemics (a little-known topic). Alas, this year the course is 50 hour long; hence, we shall skip genocide and gloss over some of the topics which used to be part of the lectures on civil war and terrorism.

Readings/Bibliography

I. INTERNATIONAL CRISES

Brecher, M. (2008), International Political Earthquakes, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, pp. 6-27.

II. COERCION

George, A.L. (1994), Coercive Diplomacy: Definition and Characteristics, in George, A.L., e W.E. Simon, (eds), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Second Edition, Boulder (CO), Westview, pp. 7-11.

George, A.L. (1994), Theory and Practice, in George, A.L., e W.E. Simon, (eds), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Second Edition, pp. 13-21.

Schelling, T. (2015), Deterrence and Compellence, in Art, R.J. and K.M. Greenhill (eds), The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics, Lanham (MD), Rowman and Littlefield (eight ed.), pp. 20-27.

Intermediate-range Ballistic Missiles (lecture notes by professor Fiammenghi).

III. BALANCING/PREPONDERANCE

Organski, A.F.K. (1958), World Politics, New York, Knopf (second ed. 1968), pp. 363-376.

Waltz, K.N. (1979), Theory of International Politics, Reading, Addison-Wesley; Italian translation Teoria della politica internazionale, Bologna, Il Mulino, 1987, pp. 301-312.

IV. BARGAINING MODEL OF WAR

Fearon, J. (1995), Rationalist Explanations for War, in «International Organization», Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 379-414.

V. PSYCHOLOGY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Cottam, M., B. Dietz-Uhler, E.M. Mastors and T. Preston (2004), Introduction to Political Psychology, Londra, Lawrence Erlbaum, pp. 257-274.

Post, J. (2003), Psychobiography: "The Child Is the Father of the Man", in Sears, D.O., L. Huddie and J. Levy (eds), Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, Oxford, Oxford University Press (second ed. 2013), pp. 459-488.

VI. AUDIENCE COSTS

Snyder, J.L. e E. Borghard (2011), The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound, in «American Political Science Review», Vol. 105, No. 3, pp. 437-456.

Fearon, J.D. (2013), “Credibility” is not everything but it's not nothing either, in «The Monkey Cage», September 7. <http://themonkeycage.org/2013/09/credibility-is-not-everything-either-but-its-not-nothing-either/>

VII. BARGAINING WHILE FIGHTING

Wagner, R.H. (2007), War and the State: The Theory of International Politics, Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, pp. 131-151; 162-165.

VIII. CASE STUDIES

US-China competition in Central Asia and in the Asia-Pacific (lecture notes by professor Fiammenghi).

Russian Foreign Policy towards Ukraine (lecture notes by professor Fiammenghi).

Mitchell, A.W. (2015), The Case for Deterrence by Denial, in «American Interest», August 12. <http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/12/the-case-for-deterrence-by-denial/>

Giles, K. (2016), Handbook of Russian Information Warfare, NATO Defense College, Defense Monograph No. 9, pp. 46-60.

Gilli, A. and M. Gilli (2018/19), Why China Hans't Caught Up Yet: Military-Technological Superiority and the Limits of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage, «International Security», Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 141-189.

IX. CLIMATE, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND CONFLICT

Wolf, A.T. (1998), Conflict and Cooperation along International Waterways, in «Water Policy», Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 251-265.

Hsiang, S.M., M. Burke, and E. Miguel (2013), Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict, in «Science», Vol. 341, No. 6151, 1235367.

Selby, J., O.S. Dahi, C. Frohlich, and M. Hulme (2017), Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited, in «Political Geography», Vol. 60, pp. 232-244.

X.ETHNIC CONFLICT/CIVIL WARS

Walter, B. (1997), The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement, in «International Organization», Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 335-364.

Fearon, J.D. and D. Laitin (2003), Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War, in «American Political Science Review», Vol. 97, No. 1, pp. 75-90.

XI. TERRORISM

Rapoport, D.C. (2004), The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism, in Cronin, A.K., e J.M. Ludes (eds), Attacking Terrorism: Elements of a Grand Strategy, Washington, DC, Georgetown University Press, pp. 46-73.

Victoroff, J. (2005), The Mind of the Terrorist: A Review and Critique of Psychological Approaches, in «Journal of Conflict Resolution», Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 3-42.

Islamic schisms and conflict (lecture notes by professor Fiammenghi).

XII.GENDER AND CONFLICT

Wrangham, R. and D. Peterson (1996), Demonic Males: Apes and the Origins of Human Violence, Boston (MA), Houghton Mifflin; Italian translation Maschi Bestiali: Basi biologiche della violenza umana, Roma, Franco Muzzio, 2005, pp. 197-214.

McDonald, M.M., C.D. Navarrete and M. Van Vugt (2011), Evolution and the Psychology of Intergroup Conflict: The Male Warrior Hypothesis, in «Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences», Vol. 367, No. 1589, pp. 670-679.

Teaching methods

Blended 1: 13 lessons in class (26 horus); 12 lessons online (24 hours).

I will record lessons and then upload them. So if a scheduling conflict occurs, it should be possible for you to attend other classes, and to download my lessons later on.

UPDATE 26/10/2020

Files are too big to be uploaded on Virtuale. I thank a student of mine, Matteo Zanotti, for uploading the files on OneDrive. Here's the link: https://liveunibo-my.sharepoint.com/:f:/g/personal/matteo_zanotti12_studio_unibo_it/EqIUzSUvr1RHn6V2Axywc4MBHvFJMaKRF9F5_PqvxNrb4A?e=jmx8mJ

Assessment methods

Readings and exams are the same for both attending and non-attending students.

Two in-class exams (15 questions: multiple-choice and short-answer questions). Each exam will count for 50% of your final grade. The first exam will be given in mid-November; the second one at the end of classes.

If you fail an exam, you can retake it. You can also take a single, comprehensive, exam in either January-February, June-July, or September.

Office hours

See the website of Davide Fiammenghi