27070 - Time Series Analysis and Forecasting applied to tourism

Academic Year 2010/2011

  • Docente: Simone Giannerini
  • Credits: 4
  • SSD: SECS-S/01
  • Language: Italian
  • Teaching Mode: Traditional lectures
  • Campus: Rimini
  • Corso: Second cycle degree programme (LM) in Economics and management of Tourism (cod. 0912)

Learning outcomes

The course provides the methodological basis of time series analysis with particular emphasis on tourism flow modelling and forecasting. The student will be able to  perform a complete analysis of an economic time series: preliminary analyses, seasonal adjustment, model selection and validation, forecast.

Course contents

  1. Introduction to time series analysis and its motivations
  2. Introduction to stochastic processes
  3. Autocovariance and autocorrelation
  4. Linear processes
  5. ARIMA modelling
  6. Forecasting procedures
  7. Decomposition and seasonal adjustment

Readings/Bibliography

T. Di Fonzo, F. Lisi,  Serie Storiche Economiche. Carocci , Roma, 2005.   

  • Ch 1: all of it.
  • Ch 2: up to 2.3 (included).
  • Ch 3: all of it.
  • Ch 5: all of it.
  • Ch 6: all of it.
  • Ch 9: up to 9.4 (included)

ADDITIONAL READINGS:

E.B. Dagum, Analisi delle serie storiche. Modellistica, previsione e scomposizione. Springer-Verlag Italia, Milano, 2001.

Teaching methods

  • Lectures
  • Classes

Assessment methods

Written examination

Links to further information

http://www2.stat.unibo.it/giannerini

Office hours

See the website of Simone Giannerini