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Marco Bittelli

Professore associato

Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Agro-Alimentari

Settore scientifico disciplinare: AGRI-02/A Agronomia e coltivazioni erbacee

Contenuti utili

Book: Huffaker R., M. Bittelli & R. Rosa. Non Linear Time Series Analysis with R. Oxford University Press. 2017

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis with R provides a practical guide to emerging empirical techniques allowing practitioners to diagnose whether highly fluctuating and random appearing data are most likely driven by random or deterministic dynamic forces. It joins the chorus of voices recommending 'getting to know your data' as an essential preliminary evidentiary step in modelling. Time series are often highly fluctuating with a random appearance. Observed volatility is commonly attributed to exogenous random shocks to stable real-world systems. However, breakthroughs in nonlinear dynamics raise another possibility: highly complex dynamics can emerge endogenously from astoundingly parsimonious deterministic nonlinear models. Nonlinear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) is a collection of empirical tools designed to aid practitioners detect whether stochastic or deterministic dynamics most likely drive observed complexity. Practitioners become 'data detectives' accumulating hard empirical evidence supporting their modelling approach.

Computer codes: https://github.com/bittelli