Paul Matthew Loveless � News

Rethinking Explanation, Causality, and Prediction in Social Science

Sun, 05 Jul 2026 10:29:29 +0200

European Political Science Society Annual Meeting – 18-20 June 2026 – Belfast

UNIBO professors and CERSP Co-Directors, Matthew Loveless and Chiara Binelli, held a Standing-Room-Only panel titled, “Rethinking Explanation, Causality, and Prediction in Social Science’ [ME01] to bring together leading-edge thinking on empirical social science research and its direction.

Description: Across the social sciences, causality has become an organizing principle but also a polarizing force in research methodology. Entire research programs now pivot on identifying causal effects, which some argue has led to the expense of broader explanatory or theoretical ambitions. This panel brings together work that takes on these questions by pointing to novel ways of gaining credible, generalizable, and meaningful social inquiry. At the center lies a shared question: What does it mean to learn from data?

The papers approach this from different angles – rethinking how uncertainty can be measured and preregistered rather than merely controlled; how the accumulated record of studies might be reanalyzed to reveal generalizable patterns; how prediction can serve as a route to stronger theory rather than a substitute for it; and how the very concept of causality has drifted from a theoretical ideal into a methodological end in itself.

Taken together, these interventions suggest that methodological innovation is necessary to balance competing goals of research design. To move forward, these methods help make causality, prediction, and description as complementary methods that aim for the full explanation of complex human realities.

New Publication: Support for climate change policies is not just about what one feels they can do, it is what they feel they must do - and expect others to do as well.

Thu, 08 May 2025 21:00:58 +0200

A new publication with Prof. Chiara Binelli (UNIBO, CeRSP)

2025. “Environmental actions, support for policy, and information’s provision: experimental evidence from the US” Climatic Change 178, 100. https://lnkd.in/ds5V-dCg .

We show that, experimentally, prospective local climate change information is most effective at increasing pro-environmental actions and policy support, regardless of partisanship (a huge hurdle for the US). This impact increases when individuals (1) feel responsible for addressing climate change, (2) have young children, and (2) trust the central government.

Once again for those in the back: Perceptions Are Everything! (another publication)

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 14:52:11 +0200

Loveless, Matthew. Forthcoming. "Perceptions are Everything: Individuals’ Normative Attitudes toward Inequality and Political Participation in Europe" Acta Politica DOI: 10.1057/s41269-024-00350-w

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A Pro-EU Backdraft! New publication in West European Politics

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 14:50:35 +0200

Carrieri, Luca, Nicolò Conti, and Matthew Loveless. forthcoming. “EU Issue Voting in European Member States: The Return of the Pro-EU Stance and Pro-EU Voter” West European Politics https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2024.2370121

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SAGE webinar for Political Analysis

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 14:35:35 +0200

I did a webinar on my new statistics textbook: Political Analysis. Check it out (if you need 1 hour of statistics pedagogy in your life).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-mtIzX3SQg

A new textbook on Stats

Wed, 01 Feb 2023 09:17:19 +0100

Loveless, Matthew 2023. Political Analysis: A Guide to Data and Statistics. 1^st edition. Sage.

Check out my new textbook on stats, soon to be available in the library at DSPS!

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The effects of early elections on satisfaction with democracy

Mon, 20 Dec 2021 11:50:21 +0100

Edward Morgan-Jones and M. Loveless: ‘The effects of early elections on satisfaction with democracy’ The Constitution Unit blog, 17 Dec 2021

here

Satisfaction with Democracy

Mon, 25 Oct 2021 21:50:33 +0200

Satisfaction with democracy goes down when Presidents and PM's call early elections!

Check it out!

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When You Win, Nothing Hurts: The Durability of Electoral Salience on Individuals’ Satisfaction with Democracy

Mon, 02 Mar 2020 12:04:20 +0100

Loveless, Mathew. 2020. “When You Win, Nothing Hurts: The Durability of Electoral Salience on Individuals’ Satisfaction with Democracy” Political Studies 10.1177/0032321720910356nbsp;

Paul Matthew Loveless � News

Rethinking Explanation, Causality, and Prediction in Social Science

New Publication: Support for climate change policies is not just about what one feels they can do, it is what they feel they must do - and expect others to do as well.

Once again for those in the back: Perceptions Are Everything! (another publication)

A Pro-EU Backdraft! New publication in West European Politics

SAGE webinar for Political Analysis

Top Cited Article in JCMS (again!)

A new textbook on Stats

The effects of early elections on satisfaction with democracy

Satisfaction with Democracy

When You Win, Nothing Hurts: The Durability of Electoral Salience on Individuals’ Satisfaction with Democracy