00915 - Economic Statistics

Learning outcomes

Students will acquire basic knowledge of the main aspects and problems concerning observation and measurement of macro-economic phenomena. In particular students will be able to understand which variables have to be considered to describe the economic system and the ratio of their relationships, to measure change over time and space of economic variables, in particular prices and inflation rates, to build basic synthetic indicators of production, consumption and labour market.

Course contents

1) Course introduction, presentation of course contents and of assessment methods.

2) Observing and measuring economic phenomena. Micro-economic vs macro-economic analysis. Production and income and their relationship.

3) The system of national account, main characteristics. The account system and the relevant balances.

4) The input - output model: the Leontief model and the national accounts. The model used for economic analysis and political economy.

5) Measuring economic aggregates. Sources of statistics and statistical surveys. Main steps of statistical surveys and data quality.

6) Measuring change of monetary aggregates over time. Number index of prices and their construction. Main typologies of number index and their properties. Comparing economic aggregates over time. The number indexes and industrial production of consumption. Indicator of inflation processes.

7) Measuring change of monetary aggregates over space. Comparing economic aggregates through tax exchange or Purchase Power Parity. EKS and GK methods.

8) Introduction to the analysis of time series: the classic model of decomposition. Fit of trend and treatment of seasonality. Exponential smoothing.

9) Measures and analysis of Labour market aggregates. Data sources of labour supply. Composition of Labour Force. Indicators of Labour Market.

10) Estimation of value added and GDP.

Readings/Bibliography

 Reference texts

Cheli B., A. Coli (2015, 2a edizione), Lezioni di statistica economica, Il Borghetto (punti 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 e 10 del programma).

Siesto V. (2003), La contabilità nazionale. Il sistema dei conti del 2000, Il Mulino, cap. 2, par. 10,11,12 (punto 3del programma).

Guarini R., F. Tassinari (2000), Statistica Economica. Problemi e metodi di analisi, il Mulino, 3° edizione, capitolo 4 (punto 4 del programma).

Fortini M. (2010), Linee guida metodologiche per rilevazioni statistiche, ISTAT, http://www.istat.it/it/files/2010/09/lineeguida.pdf (punto 5 del programma)

Di Fonzo T., F. Lisi (2015), Serie storiche economiche - Analisi statistiche e applicazioni, Carocci, capp. 1, 2, 3.1-3.6 (punto 8 del programma).

Further reading (optional):

Giovannini E. (2015), Le statistiche economiche, Il Mulino.

ISTAT, Istituto nazionale di statistica (2018), Rapporto annuale 2018 – LA situazione del Paese. https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/214230

ISTAT, Istituto nazionale di statistica (2012), Linee guida per la qualità dei processi statistici. http://www.istat.it/it/strumenti/qualità-dei-dati/linee-guida (esclusi i paragrafi E.4-E.7)

Lequiller, F. and D. Blades (2014), Understanding National Accounts: Second Edition, OECD Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264214637-en

Miller R. E., P. D. Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, 2nd edition, Cambridge University Press

Predetti A. (2006), I numeri indici. Teoria e pratica dei confronti temporali e spaziali, Giuffrè.

Siesto V. (2003), La contabilità nazionale. Il sistema dei conti del 2000, Il Mulino.

Handouts concerning some topics of the program, exercises and examples, are available on IOL. Other readings to deepen some specific topics will be suggested during the lectures.

The course is held in Italian. Please contact the lecturer in case you are interested in taking the course for credits.

Teaching methods

Lectures, exercises and presentation of the main economic statistics used in the analysis of the economic system by policy makers.

Assessment methods

Written examination.

Questions cover the statistical methods, the use of these methods and the interpretation of the obtained results . In AMS Campus some past exam papers with solutions can be found.

After the first part of the lessons, a first partial intermediate test is proposed, whereas the second partial test is at the end of the lessons. Students only have access to the second partial test if they have passed the first one. The total evaluation is the average of the two partial evaluations.

During the written exam, students are not allowed to use the lectures notes or other material and they are required to have an identity document.

The official registration of the final evaluation takes place on a date communicated through Almaesami and it can take place in the absence of the student.

Teaching tools

Slides, teaching materials, exercises and examples are available on the web page https://iol.unibo.it/course/view.php?id=23442.

Office hours

See the website of Maria Ferrante