82816 - Intelligence and Political Decision Making

Learning outcomes

The course is based on the presumption that intelligence and foreign policy-making are interwoven with each other. Examines the role of intelligence in the strategic decision-making process and formulation of foreign policy in the USA, Western Democracies, Russia, China and leading Middle Eastern powers. Intelligence is analyzed either as governmental institution or a form of activity, with emphasis on complex relations within the triangle: intelligence community – national security planning bodies – top political leadership. Course is based on open and declassified materials. Case studies are integrated as appropriate. No intelligence background is needed or expected.

Course contents

The course is structured as follows:
- the first part introduces the Intelligence Analysis, and the relationship between intelligence analysts, policy-makers, and risk managers. The course focuses on a multidisciplinary approach, which ranges from disciplines such as social sciences, history, anthropology, psychology to cognitive science and information technology.
- the second part is on case studies in national and international politics, computer security and some aspects of the role of secret services.
- the course ends with the realization of an individual o group project work, an integral part of the assessment of the exam.

Part I

1) Intelligence as a science:
· Intelligence Cycle
· Intelligence Sources Collection
· Types of Reasoning and Decision-Making theories
· Intelligence Analysis and Cognitive Biases
· Intelligence Analysis in an uncertain environment

2) Intelligence Analyst and Policy-Maker relationship:
· Actors, Policy Decision Resources and Decision Contexts

3) Intelligence Accountability
· Intelligence as a set of missions: roles of defense and peace-making
· Ethics and professional Intelligence
· The Challenge of the Counterintelligence

Part II

1) Intelligence and decision-making within the Foreign and Security Policy (historical cases):
· Foreign Policy Decision Making Perspective
· Types of Decisions and Levels of Analysis (case studies)
· Intelligence and National Security Agencies: Europe, Australia, Russia
· The process of European intelligence cooperation

2) Intelligence and cyber-security (state-of-the-art):
· Defining the Role of Intelligence in Cyberspace
· Cognitive Processes and Decision-Making in Cyberspace
· International Cyber-Conflicts: a case of study

Project-work

Research based on one keyword (agreed with the teacher) taken in a provided Glossary. 

A guideline about how writing a project work will be available on the website. The report (minimum 5000 words) will be sent to the teacher at least ten days before the oral examination.

Non-attending students for educational commitments abroad (Erasmus) will be required to produce a further review/research of 5000 words, concerning the course topics possibly applied to their own experience abroad, agreed with the professor.

 

Readings/Bibliography

- Stephen Marrin (2011), Improving Intelligence Analysis, Routledge: capitoli 3 e 8

- Stephen Marrin (2016) “Improving Intelligence Studies as an Academic Discipline”, Intelligence and National Security, 31:2, 266-279

- Stephen Marrin (2013) "Revisiting Intelligence and Policy: Problems with Politicization and Receptivity", Intelligence and National Security, 28:1, 1-4

- Alex Mintz, Karl DeRouen J, Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, 2010  (Chapters: 1, 2, 3)

- Aaron Franklin Brantly, The Decision to Attack: Military and Intelligence Cyber Decision-Making (Studies in Security and International Affairs), Paperback edition from University of Georgia Press 2016 (Chapters: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10)

- Further selected readings and videos will be provided at the beginning of the course

- course materials

Project work

Quaderno di Intelligence (2013), Gnosis, vol 1 

alternatively: West N. (2015), Historical Dictionary of International Intelligence, Rowman & Littlefield

Digital learning materials (in English) will be provided during the course, and available on the website.

  

Teaching methods

The program will be entirely developed during lectures, webinars, and project work (in English and Italian)

Assessment methods

The exam will take place in Italian for the students of LM SID, in English for the students of MIREES or Erasmus.

It will consist of two mid-term exams and a final oral exam.

The second mid-term exam (a test of 20 multiple choice questions) will take place after the end of the second part. Evaluation: points 0-10

The oral exam will concern of a discussion of the project work. Evaluation: points 0-10

Those who have not carried out the two mid-term exams will support the examination of the entire program during the oral exam.

Those who did not get an evaluation equal or superior 6 in each test will repeat the same program during the oral exam.

Criteria for the first mid-term and oral exams:
-knowledge and understanding
-applying knowledge and understanding
-making judgments
-communication skills
-Learning skills

 

Teaching tools

Digital presentations, videos, webinars, publication of lecture notes, use of a forum for ongoing questions and clarifications, use of collaborative writing software (wiki).

Office hours

See the website of Luisa Dall'Acqua