55268 - Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Risk

Academic Year 2020/2021

  • Docente: Francesco Mulargia
  • Credits: 6
  • SSD: GEO/10
  • Language: Italian
  • Teaching Mode: Traditional lectures
  • Campus: Bologna
  • Corso: Second cycle degree programme (LM) in Geology and Territory (cod. 9073)

Learning outcomes

At the end of the course, the student is able to describe the basic physical processes of earthquakes. The student also learns the fundamentals of statistics and seismological observation. In particular, at the end of the course the student is able to: - correctly read a seismogram; - calculate the state of strain and stress; - understand and describe quantitatively the mechanics of fractures; - critically read the literature on earthquake forecasting; - develop quantitative hazard and risk scenarios.

Course contents

Earthquake Physics. Stress and strain. Earthquakes as a thermodynamic process: energy balance, elastic wave emission. The role of crustal fluids. Stick slip in the laboratory and in situ. Predicting and forecasting earthquakes. Precursor phenomena. The deterministic and statistical models of earthquakes. The law of Gutenberg and Richter. Scale invariance and clustering. Foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The perception of earthquakes and seismic risk. Cornell's method. Estimation of seismic risk taking into account Physics. The M6.6 earthquake of 30 October 2016 in central Italy, correctly "predicted" by the Major Risks Commission, which reduced the risk. Where the next events in Italy.

Readings/Bibliography

Mulargia, F., Geller, R.J. (Eds.), 2003. Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction. Kluwer, Dordrecht. 347 pp..

Guidoboni, E., Mulargia, F., Teti, V., (Eds.) 2015. Prevedibile/imprevedibile. Eventi estremi nel prossimo futuro, Rubettino, Soveria Mannelli, 381 pp..

Teaching methods

Lectures, presentations by students of in-depth studies on assigned topics

Assessment methods

Evaluation of the in-depth work carried out by each student during the course and final oral exam.

Teaching tools

The most relevant original publications on the subject will be made available and discussed. Video clips.

Office hours

See the website of Francesco Mulargia