90904 - PREDICTION AND THE FUTURE OF PUBLIC POLICY

Anno Accademico 2021/2022

  • Docente: Elena Esposito
  • Crediti formativi: 8
  • SSD: SPS/08
  • Lingua di insegnamento: Inglese
  • Modalità didattica: Convenzionale - Lezioni in presenza
  • Campus: Bologna
  • Corso: Laurea Magistrale in Politica, amministrazione e organizzazione (cod. 9085)

    Valido anche per Laurea Magistrale in International relations (cod. 9084)

Conoscenze e abilità da conseguire

The aim of the course is to provide an overview of the evolution of forms of prediction in the public sphere. At the end of the course the student will be able to: • distinguish probabilistic and algorithmic forms of prediction • identify assumptions and consequences of different forms of prediction • analyze and interpret concrete cases of planning in the field of public policy.

Contenuti

The topics of solidarity, risk management, public and private guarantees in front of the uncertainty of the future, at the basis of Western democratic institutions, are recently the subject of a growing debate, connected also with the spread of digital technologies and new ways of building public spaces. It becomes then even more important to explore the history and foundations of these notions, and the course proposes to do so in the form of an in-depth reading of Francois Ewald's classic text L'Etat Providence, published in French in 1986 and appeared in 2020 in English translation. The reading of the text will be supplemented with a few chapters of the book Embracing Risk edited by Tom Baker and Jonathan Simon in 2001, which takes up Ewald's themes in the perspective of the subsequent debate. The last part of the course will deal with an exploration of the recent debate on preparedness, which shifts attention from the current focus on mitigation and distribution of damages to the government of unpredictable outcomes. On the empirical level, we will investigate recent forms like catastrophe insurance and the tools developed to cope with the need for preparedness.

Testi/Bibliografia

A detailed syllabus will be provided at the beginning of the course.

Metodi didattici

Participants are expected to read the materials in advance and actively contribute to the discussion. They must prepare two questions for each meeting, that will be presented and debated during the sessions. After each session, they will deliver a short memo (e.g. several bullet points) summarizing their understanding of the outcome of the meeting in terms of the issues they find most relevant. At the end of the course, they will write a paper commenting and discussing one of the topics discussed during the meetings. Alternatively, they can make a presentation of the texts assigned in one of the meetings and coordinate the discussion.

Modalità di verifica e valutazione dell'apprendimento

Class attendance: 35%

Questions and memos: 25%

Presentation or paper: 40%

Orario di ricevimento

Consulta il sito web di Elena Esposito