72597 - Analysis of Public Opinion

Learning outcomes

The course introduces students to concepts, methods and techniques developed in the social sciences for analyzing opinions on matters of public interest, on political attitudes and electoral behavior. At the end of the course the student knows: some of the most important theories about public opinion formation; how to design and conduct social surveys; how surveys can be analysed, through statistical tools, in order to forecast electoral results and to find the underlying factors that influence political behavior; how, in democratic polities, citizens' opinions on political issues are polarized.

Course contents

The first part of the course provides the categories and basic methodological canons of empirical research on social and political phenomena: definition of the research questions, assumptions, concepts and indicators; survey design, with particular attention to the formulation of questionnaires and the sampling plan; presentation of the survey results and analysis by the main statistical techniques. The second part presents the main assumptions and analyses on factors that influence the formation of political opinions and voting choices: the ascribed characteristics of voters (gender, age, education , family), their position in the social structure (class, religion, territory), their long-term political predispositions (left-right placement, party identifications, values​​), their assessment on the objects of competition (government, political parties, leaders).

Readings/Bibliography

Investigating the views of the public. Explaining the voting behavior. Questions and hypotheses

Jacques Thomassen, Introduction , in: Jacques Thomassen (editor), The European Voter: A Comparative Study Of Modern Democracies , Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, pp. 1-20.

Paolo Bellucci, Paolo Segatti. Introduzione , in P. Bellucci e P. Segatti (a cura di), Votare in Italia: 1968-2008. Dall'appartenenza alla scelta , Bologna, Il Mulino, 2010, pp. 9-17.

Concepts, properties, indicators, variables

Piergiorgio Corbetta, Giancarlo Gasperoni, Maurizio Pisati. Statistica per la ricerca sociale , Il Mulino, Bologna, 2001, cap. 1, pp. 15-44.

Surveying opinions through polls

Sunshine Hillygus, The Practice of Survey Research: Changes and Challenges , in Adam J. Berinsky (editor), New Directions in Public Opinion , Routledge, 2011, pp. 32-51.

Russel Brooker e Todd Schaefer. Public Opinion In The 21st Century: Let the People Speak? New Directions in Political Behavior , cap. 2 ( Measuring Public Opinion: Survey Research ), pp. 25-66.

Piergiorgio Corbetta, Giancarlo Gasperoni, Maurizio Pisati. Statistica per la ricerca sociale , Il Mulino, Bologna, 2001, capp. 2-3.

The analysis of the relationship between two variables: cross-tabulation and simple regression

Piergiorgio Corbetta, Giancarlo Gasperoni, Maurizio Pisati. Statistica per la ricerca sociale , Il Mulino, Bologna, 2001, capp. 4-6.

Multivariate analysis: multiple and logistic regression (basic notions)

Piergiorgio Corbetta, Giancarlo Gasperoni, Maurizio Pisati. Statistica per la ricerca sociale , Il Mulino, Bologna, 2001, capp. 7-9.

Ascribed characteristics: age, gender, education, family

Piergiorgio Corbetta, Luigi Ceccarini. Le variabili socio-demografiche: generazione, genere, istruzione e famiglia , in: Paolo Bellucci, Paolo Segatti (a cura di). Votare in Italia, 1968-2008. Dall'appartenenza alla scelta , Bologna, il Mulino, 2011, pp. 83-148.

Place in the social structure: class, religion, territory

Marco Maraffi, Hans Schadee, Cristiano Vezzoni, Gabriele Ballarino. Le fratture sociali: classe, religione, territorio . in: Paolo Bellucci, Paolo Segatti (a cura di). Votare in Italia, 1968-2008. Dall'appartenenza alla scelta , Bologna, il Mulino, 2011, pp. 149-186.

Political predispositions: left-right, positional issues, party identification, values

Salvatore Vassallo, Sinistra e destra. Una distinzione sfuggente ma necessaria . In: ITANES, Sinistra e destra: Le radici psicologiche della differenza politica , Bologna, Il Mulino, pp. 19-44.

Salvatore Vassallo, Le questioni che dividono gli italiani . in ITANES: Dov'è la vittoria? Il voto del 2006 raccontato dagli italiani , Bologna, Il Mulino, pp. 163-178.

Roberto Biorcio, Gli antecedenti politici della scelta di voto: l'identificazione di partito e l'autocollocazione sinistra-destra , in: Paolo Segatti (a cura di). Votare in Italia, 1968-2008. Dall'appartenenza alla scelta , Bologna, il Mulino, 2011, pp. 187-211.

Values and Political Culture

Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel (2009). Political culture, mass beliefs, and value change. In: Democratization, Oxford University Press. Edited by Christian W. Haerpfer, Patrick Bernhagen, Ronald F. Inglehart, and Christian Welzel, pp. 126.144.

Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel (2010), Changing Mass Priorities: The Link between Modernization and Democracy, Perspectives on Politics. 8(2): 551-567.

Christian Welzel (2009). How Selfish Are Self-Expression Values? A Civicness Test. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology. March 2010. 41: 152-174.

Short term evaluations: valence issues, state of the economy, retrospective voting, leaders

Paolo Bellucci, Paolo Segatti, Hans Schadee, Mauro Barisione, Decidere sui temi, sulla competenza dei partiti e sui leader: i fattori di medio periodo , in Paolo Segatti (a cura di). Votare in Italia, 1968-2008. Dall'appartenenza alla scelta , Bologna, il Mulino, 2011, pp. 289-327.

Sunshine Hillygus, Michael Henderson. 2010. Political Issues and the Dynamics of Vote Choice in the 2008 Presidential Election . In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties , vol. 20, n. 2, pp. 241-269.

Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart, and Paul Whiteley (2014).  Hunting the Snark - How We Should Study Electoral Choice in the Twenty-First Century.

Teaching methods

The course consists of twenty lessons. Students will be encouraged to actively participate. They will also be asked to perform analysis of World Value Survey, European Social Survey and Itanes (Italian National Election Studies) survey data. Students are strongly encouraged to read the reference texts of each lesson in advance. They will be asked to present and discuss them in class. The diagrams and figures used by the instructor will be made available to students in the days following each lesson.

Assessment methods

Each student must write a paper (15-20,000 characters) on one of the course topics. Students have to base their analysis on scientific literature and elaborations of World Value Survey, European Social Survey, or Itanes (Italian National Election Studies) survey data, provided by the instructor. Students who are found to have committed plagiarism will be excluded from the course and will not be admitted to the final examination. The final marks will be based on paper assignment and an interview concerning all the course topics.

Teaching tools

Video projector, PC.

Office hours

See the website of Salvatore Vassallo