81680 - ANALISI DI SCENARI STRATEGICI

Academic Year 2018/2019

  • Teaching Mode: Traditional lectures
  • Campus: Bologna
  • Corso: Second cycle degree programme (LM) in Computer Science (cod. 8028)

    Also valid for Second cycle degree programme (LM) in International Relations (cod. 8782)

Learning outcomes

The aim of the course it to build capability in scenario analysis. At the end of the course, the student will be able to conceptualise, to formalise and to simulate a model of policy-making in order to investigate long-term consequences of the policy.

Course contents

1) Introduction: Strategic Management

2) The Resource-Based View of the Firm

3) Strategic Management and Scenario Analysis

4) The Concept of Structure

5) Tools to analyze dynamical systems.

A. Causal Loop Diagrama

B. Positive Feedback Loops

C. Negative Feedback Loops

D. Stock and Flow Diagram

E. The Analysis of Structure-Behavior Relationship

6) Resource-Based View of the Firm and Properties of Resource Accumulation Processes.

7) Asset Mass Efficiency

8) Asset Erosion

9) Asset Interconnection

10) Time compressione diseconomies:

A. Material Delays

B. Information Delays: ‘Psychological smoothing’.

11) Causal ambiguity and non-linearity.

12) Computer Modelling, Simulation and Scenario Analysis

13) Problem Analysis.

14) Building a Qualitative Model.

15) Building a Quantitative Model.

16) Test of the model.

17) Defining an Experimental Simulation Protocol.

Readings/Bibliography

Sterman, J. D., (2000), Business Dynamics, System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill.

Teaching methods

Lectures and classes

Assessment methods

Written examinations.

Office hours

See the website of Edoardo Mollona